<2025> Recycling/Reuse 기술동향 및 시장전망 (~2040)
배터리 재활용과 재사용은 더 이상 선택이 아닌 필수적인 과제가 되었다. 전기차 보급 확산과 환경 규제 강화로 자동차 산업이 전동화라는 큰 전환점을 맞으면서, 재활용 시장은 구조적으로 확대될 수밖에 없다.
최근 중국의 블랙매스 수입 규제 완화로 글로벌 자원 흐름과 시장 균형이 크게 변화하고 있다. 이와 맞물려 EU의 수출 규제,
EOL 배터리와 블랙매스 운송비 부담, 원료 가격 체계 분리 논의 등 산업 구조 전반에
영향을 미치는 이슈들이 지속적으로 제기되고 있다.
단기적으로는 금속 가격 약세, 전기차 판매 둔화, 전처리·후처리 설비 간 불균형 등으로 업계가 압박을 받고 있다. 그러나 중장기적으로 사용 종료(EOL) 배터리와 블랙매스 공급 확대가
예상되면서, 시장은 점차 안정적 성장 궤도로 진입할 것으로 전망된다.
기술 개발 측면에서는 저온 열처리, 리튬 선추출 공정, 전구체 기반 솔루션, 망초 처리 등 다양한 혁신 기술이 활발히 연구되고
있다. 특히 Direct Recycling 기술이 상용화될
경우, 재활용 효율과 비용 절감이 동시에 가능해져 산업 경쟁력 강화에 기여할 것으로 기대된다.
경제성은 여전히 금속 가격 변동에 크게 좌우되고 있으며, 안정적인
수익 구조 확보가 업계의 핵심 과제로 떠오르고 있다.
본 보고서는 SNE리서치의 글로벌
xEV 판매 데이터와 업계 전문가 인사이트를 기반으로, 2040년까지의 배터리 Recycling/Reuse 시장을 종합적으로 전망하였다.
리포트 목차
1. 서론 (전기차 배터리 개요)
1.1 리튬 이온 전지 ········································································ 7
1.2 EV용 리튬 이온 전지 폼팩터 ········································································ 8
2. 전기차 배터리 Recycling의 필요성
2.1 배터리 구성성분의 환경 유해성 ········································································ 10
2.2 배터리 취급 시 안전 문제 ········································································ 11
2.3 배터리 Recycling의
가치와 필요성 ········································································ 13
3.
Recycling/Reuse 시장 전망
3.1 전기차 EOL 배터리 Value Chain별 이슈 ········································································ 18
3.2 Recycling/Reuse 시장 전망 방법론 ········································································ 22
3.3 폐차 발생량 전망 ········································································ 23
3.4 EOL 배터리 발생량 전망 ········································································ 30
3.5 스크랩 발생량 전망 ········································································ 36
3.6 Recycling 시장 전망
(금속무게 기준) ········································································ 43
3.7 Recycling 시장 전망
(금액규모 기준) ········································································ 51
3.8 Recycling 수급
balance ········································································ 58
3.9 Recycling 이슈 – 운송비 / EU 블랙매스 반출 / Recycling 원료 가격 / 한국 배터리 메탈 Recycling Rate (2024년 기준) ······················· 64
4. EOL 배터리 관리 법규
4.1 EOL 배터리 관리 법률의 필요성 ········································································ 68
4.2 법규 현황 및 전망_유럽
········································································ 69
4.3 법규 현황 및 전망_미국
········································································ 71
4.4 법규 현황 및 전망_중국
········································································ 73
4.5 법규 현황 및 전망_일본
········································································ 78
4.6 법규 현황 및 전망_한국
········································································ 79
5. 배터리 Recycling 공정 개요
5.1 용어정리 ········································································
82
5.2 EOL 배터리
Recycling 공정 개요 ········································································
83
5.3 진단 기술 ········································································ 84
5.4 Recycling 공정 ········································································ 85
6. 배터리 Recycling 습식 공정 소개
6.1 배터리 Recycling 공정
개요 ········································································ 91
6.2 배터리 Recycling 전처리
공정 (물리적 처리) ········································································ 94
6.3 배터리 Recycling 후처리
공정 (화학적 처리) ········································································ 104
6.4 습식 공정 R&D 포인트
········································································ 117
7.
Recycling/Reuse 공정 경제성 평가
7.1 EOL 배터리 처리공정 ········································································ 120
7.2 EOL 배터리 탈거 및 방전 공정 ········································································ 121
7.3 EOL 배터리 분해 공정 ········································································ 122
7.4 EOL 배터리 성능평가 ········································································ 123
7.5 Reuse 공정비용 추정 ········································································ 127
7.6 Recycling 경제성 평가 ········································································ 130
8.
Recycling/Reuse 주요 Player
8.1 한국
Recycling/Reuse Player ········································································ 132
-성일하이텍, 에코프로CnG, 포스코HY클린메탈, GS에너지머티리얼즈, 새빗켐, 굿바이카
8.2 Global Recycling/Reuse Player ········································································ 139
-Duesenfeld, Umicore, Li-Cycle, Redwood
Materials, Ascend Elements,
Brunp, GEM, Huayou Cobalt, Sumitomo Metal Mining, 4R Energy