Global Clean Hydrogen Production Market Projected to Reach KRW 437 Trillion by 2040
Simultaneous expansion of green and pink hydrogen to trigger high-growth phase post-2030, with optimistic scenarios forecasting up to KRW 688 trillion
According to the report titled published by SNE Research, the global clean hydrogen production market is projected to expand significantly under the base scenario, growing from approximately KRW 5.5 trillion in 2025 to around KRW 437 trillion by 2040.
During the same period, the total production of clean hydrogen, encompassing green, pink, and yellow hydrogen, is expected to increase roughly 79-fold, surging from 1.37 million tons per annum (Mtpa) to 108 Mtpa. This rapid market expansion is primarily driven by the accelerating global energy transition and the strengthening of hydrogen-related government policies worldwide.
(Source: Development Status of Clean Hydrogen Production Technology and Market Outlook (~2040), SNE Research)
2030 to Mark the Inflection Point: Over 80% of Market Growth Concentrated in the Later Phase
The growth of the clean hydrogen production market is structured to accelerate sharply starting from the pivotal year of 2030. The period from 2025 to 2030 represents a foundation-building phase, during which the market size is expected to expand from approximately KRW 5.5 trillion to KRW 75.7 trillion.
However, after 2030, the pace of growth is set to quicken dramatically as the deployment of electrolyzers scales up and the procurement of renewable power enters full swing. The market is projected to reach approximately KRW 158.4 trillion by 2035 and around KRW 437 trillion by 2040, meaning the vast majority of overall growth will be concentrated in the decade following 2030. SNE Research analyzes this specific timeframe as the definitive tipping point for the clean hydrogen production market.
(Source: Development Status of Clean Hydrogen Production Technology and Market Outlook (~2040), SNE Research)
Green Hydrogen (KRW 222T) and Pink Hydrogen (KRW 215T): Two Pillars to Divide the Market
By 2040, the clean hydrogen market is expected to form a structure where green hydrogen and pink/yellow hydrogen share the market almost equally. Under the base scenario, the green hydrogen production market is projected to reach approximately KRW 222.8 trillion (55 Mtpa) by 2040, while the pink/yellow hydrogen market is estimated at around KRW 214.7 trillion (53 Mtpa), with these two sectors effectively splitting the total KRW 437 trillion market down the middle.
The growth of green hydrogen will be driven by the expansion of renewable energy-based water electrolysis, whereas pink/yellow hydrogen growth will be led by the expansion of nuclear and low-carbon power-based water electrolysis. For both markets, falling electricity tariffs and declining electrolyzer costs will serve as shared variables that accelerate their respective expansions.
(Source: Development Status of Clean Hydrogen Production Technology and Market Outlook (~2040), SNE Research)
Up to a 3-Fold Gap Across Scenarios: Policy and Infrastructure to Dictate Market Size
SNE Research quantified market uncertainties through three distinct scenarios: Conservative, Base, and Optimistic. Based on the 2040 production volume, the market is projected at 56 Mtpa (KRW 226.8 trillion) under the conservative scenario, 108 Mtpa (KRW 437.4 trillion) under the base scenario, and 170 Mtpa (KRW 688.5 trillion) under the optimistic scenario, revealing up to a three-fold gap between the projections.
This variance will be dictated by the pace of electrolyzer deployment, the availability of renewable power, the strength of government policy support, and the securing of long-term off-take agreements. SNE Research forecasts that the full-scale growth of clean hydrogen production will ultimately depend on the speed of policy implementation and infrastructure buildout, rather than technological innovation alone.
This release is based on the report titled published by SNE Research.