U.S.-Iran Conflict Triggers Sharp Rebound in Global EV Market
SNE Research predicts that the global electric vehicle (EV) market, which has been stagnant for the past three years, will experience a dramatic recovery driven by rising oil prices following the recent U.S.-Iran conflict. According to their analysis, global demand is expected to accelerate by 0.5 years this year compared to previous forecasts, by 1 year in 2027, and by more than 2 years from 2028 onwards.
(Source: Global xEV Market Outlook Revised by SNE Research)
SNE Research expects the global EV penetration rate to surge from the original forecast of 27% to 29% this year, and from 30% to 35% in 2027.
Ik-hwan James Oh, Vice President of SNE Research, noted that while consumers previously experienced fuel prices between 1,600 and 1,700 KRW per liter, they are now suddenly facing prices of 2,000 to 2,200 KRW. He predicted that even if oil prices eventually stabilize, lingering concerns over future uncertainty will drive consumers toward the early adoption of electric vehicles.
The instability in oil prices triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict is already translating into a surge in EV inquiries from end-consumers. Consequently, surveys indicate that both domestic and international auto dealers are significantly increasing their order volumes for EV models compared to previous levels.
Ref 1) Study on the Payback Period for Vehicle Price Differences
According to recent fluctuations in oil prices, the payback period to offset the price gap between the electric EV5 and the gasoline-powered Sportage 1.6T has significantly shortened. Research indicates that when fuel prices rise from 1,600 KRW to 2,000 KRW per liter, the time required to recover the initial cost difference is accelerated by more than six months.
*Sportage 1.6T (gasoline) vs. EV5 Standard (NCM) (Unit: year, KRW/liter)
(Source: SNE Research)
Ref 2) TCO Outlook by Vehicle Model (Based on 20,000 km Annual Mileage)
