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<2026> Global LIB Production Line Expansion Outlook (~2035) DB

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Only 74% of Announced Plans Become Effective Supply

Global lithium-ion battery design capacity (Design Capa) is forecast to reach 9,787.3GWh in 2035, 2.38 times the 2025 level of 4,106.5GWh. Most of the growth comes early: 5,012GWh is added in 2026-2030, against just 669GWh in 2031-2035. The 2026-2030 additions represent roughly USD 305.7 billion of investment (estimate).

Not every announced plan will be built. After adjusting for the likelihood of construction at each project stage, applying an 85% utilization rate and excluding IT-only lines, effective capacity (Real Capa) comes to 7,249.5GWh in 2035, or 74.1% of design capacity. With 34.6% of all plans (3,382GWh) not yet operating, how quickly projects break ground and start up will shape the supply outlook.

Measured against Real Demand, the supply-demand balance narrows from +67.1% in 2026 to +10.3% in 2035: capacity additions bunch up before 2030, while demand keeps growing after that. The surplus is largest in 2026-2028, and low utilization during these years could delay new construction.

The regional picture is more uneven. With expansion concentrated in plants in China, 2035 self-sufficiency reaches 194.6% in China but only 63.5% in North America and 38.1% in Europe. By maker nationality, the Chinese share rises to 79.7% from 63.3% in the 2024 edition. Korean plans fell by 

550.8GWh as companies cut capacity to announced levels, and European plans by 681.9GWh after the Northvolt bankruptcy and project cancellations.

Policy has shifted as well. The US has ended EV purchase tax credits and kept only the production credit (45X); Europe is moving to ease its 2035 target while tightening local production requirements; China combines capacity regulation with export controls on technology and products. Because all three regions now tie support to where batteries are made, policy changes are more likely to delay start-up than to cancel plans.

This DB provides the forecast results as annual (2021-2035) source data. It combines line-level raw data (555 rows) with pivots by company, plant location, cathode and form factor, so users can change filters to build their own totals or link the data directly to internal demand plans. We hope it serves as a practical reference for your work.