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Battery

<2026> Global LIB Production Line Expansion Outlook (~2035)





Only 74% of Announced Plans Become Effective Supply

Global lithium-ion battery design capacity (Design Capa) is forecast to reach 9,787.3GWh in 2035, 2.38 times the 2025 level of 4,106.5GWh. Most of the growth comes early: 5,012GWh is added in 2026-2030, against just 669GWh in 2031-2035. The 2026-2030 additions represent roughly USD 305.7 billion of investment (estimate).

Not every announced plan will be built. After adjusting for the likelihood of construction at each project stage, applying an 85% utilization rate and excluding IT-only lines, effective capacity (Real Capa) comes to 7,249.5GWh in 2035, or 74.1% of design capacity. With 34.6% of all plans (3,382GWh) not yet operating, how quickly projects break ground and start up will shape the supply outlook.

Measured against Real Demand, the supply-demand balance narrows from +67.1% in 2026 to +10.3% in 2035: capacity additions bunch up before 2030, while demand keeps growing after that. The surplus is largest in 2026-2028, and low utilization during these years could delay new construction.
The regional picture is more uneven. With expansion concentrated in plants in China, 2035 self-sufficiency reaches 194.6% in China but only 63.5% in North America and 38.1% in Europe. By maker nationality, the Chinese share rises to 79.7% from 63.3% in the 2024 edition. Korean plans fell by 550.8GWh as companies cut capacity to announced levels, and European plans by 681.9GWh after the Northvolt bankruptcy and project cancellations.

Policy has shifted as well. The US has ended EV purchase tax credits and kept only the production credit (45X); Europe is moving to ease its 2035 target while tightening local production requirements; China combines capacity regulation with export controls on technology and products. Because all three regions now tie support to where batteries are made, policy changes are more likely to delay start-up than to cancel plans.

This report compiles the expansion plans of 555 lines and 109 companies at line level, forecasts capacity through 2035 by company, nationality, plant location, form factor and cathode, and examines the supply-demand balance, policy and risks. We hope it proves useful for business planning and investment decisions across the battery industry.
0.  Executive Summary   
0.1  Key Findings  7
0.2  Key Changes from the 2024 Edition  8
I.  Market and Demand Basis  9
1.1  Vehicle and EV Sales Outlook  10
1.2  Battery Demand Outlook  11
1.3  Regional Demand Divergence  12
1.4  Demand Composition  13
II.  Global Expansion Overview  14
2.1  Overview  15
2.1.1  Global LIB Capacity  15
2.1.2  Changes from the 2024 Edition  16
2.2  Companies  17
2.2.1  Ranking by Company  17
2.2.2  Supplier-OEM Links  18
2.3  Regions  20
2.3.1  Scale by Region  20
2.3.2  Expansion Outlook by Country  21
2.3.3  Capacity outside China  22
2.3.4  Nationality Mix by Region  23
2.3.5  Top 5 Makers by Region  24
2.4  Products and Technology  25
2.4.1  Expansion by Form Factor  25
2.4.2  Form Factor by Region  26
2.4.3  Expansion by Cathode  27
2.4.4  Cathode by Region  28
2.4.5  Application by Region  29
2.4.6  Technology Shifts  30
2.5  Investment Conversion of New Capacity  32
III.  Expansion Outlook by Company  33
3.1  Korean Makers  34
3.1.1  LGES  34
3.1.2  Samsung SDI  39
3.1.3  SK On  44
3.1.4  Korea Region Expansion Summary  48
3.2  Chinese Makers  49
3.2.1  CATL  49
3.2.2  BYD  55
3.2.3  EVE Energy  60
3.2.4  CALB  65
3.2.5  Chuneng New Energy  69
3.2.6  Sunwoda  71
3.2.7  AESC  75
3.2.8  Gotion  78
3.2.9  SVOLT  82
3.2.10  REPT  84
3.2.11  Farasis  86
3.2.12  Great Power  88
3.2.13  Do-Fluoride  90
3.2.14  Zenergy  92
3.2.15  Hithium  94
3.2.16  Lishen  96
3.2.17  Ganfeng Li Energy  98
3.2.18  BAK  100
3.2.19  Wanxiang 123  102
3.2.20  SANY Hongxiang  103
3.2.21  Trina Storage  105
3.2.22  36 Small and Mid-sized Chinese Makers  107
3.2.23  Design Capa by Province · Municipality · Autonomous Region in China  111
3.2.24  Top 21 Makers: Rank Changes  112
3.2.25  China Region Expansion Summary  113
3.3  Japanese Makers  114
3.3.1  Panasonic  114
3.3.2  PPES  117
3.3.3  Toyota Battery  119
3.3.4  TBMNC  121
3.3.5  GS Yuasa  123
3.3.6  Murata  125
3.3.7  5 Other Japanese Makers  127
3.3.8  Japan Region Expansion Summary  128
3.4  North American Makers  129
3.4.1  Tesla  129
3.4.2  Lyten  131
3.4.3  Ford  133
3.4.4  Amplify Cell Technologies  135
3.4.5  4 Other North American Makers  137
3.4.6  North America Region Expansion Summary  138
3.5  European Makers  139
3.5.1  PowerCo(VW)  139
3.5.2  Verkor  142
3.5.3  ACC  144
3.5.4  Basquevolt  146
3.5.5  10 Other European Makers  148
3.5.6  Europe Region Expansion Summary  149
3.6  Seven Asian Makers  150
3.7  Line Details of Small Makers  151
IV.  Mid- to Long-Term Supply-Demand  152
4.1  Basis for Supply-Demand Assessment  153
4.2  Global Supply-Demand Balance  154
4.3  Regional Supply-Demand Balance  155
V.  Policy and OEM Strategy  156
5.1  Policy Landscape and Impact on Expansion  157
5.2  Policy by Region  158
5.2.1  North America  158
5.2.2  EU  160
5.2.3  China  162
5.2.4  Korea · Japan  164
5.3  OEM Strategy  165
5.3.1  OEM Battery Insourcing  165
5.3.2  Insourcing Trends by OEM  166
5.4  Chapter 5 Summary  168
VI.  Risks and Conclusions  169
6.1  Risks  170
6.1.1  Risk Map  170
6.1.2  Oversupply Risk  171
6.1.3  Policy and Technology Risks  172
6.1.4  Risk Exposure by Company and Region  173
6.2  Conclusions and Next Checkpoints  174



 

 

 

 

 

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