At the end of last year, Donald Trump was re-elected as the President of the United States.
During his campaign, Trump had consistently
criticized electric vehicle (EV) promotion policies, even going so far as to
label green energy initiatives centered around EVs a "Green New
Scam."
By May, the Republican-controlled Congress
had begun turning this stance into policy.
The Senate passed a resolution prohibiting
state governments, particularly those like California, from implementing
vehicle emissions regulations aimed at accelerating the transition to
eco-friendly vehicles.
The House of Representatives passed a bill
named the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” This bill aimed to scale back benefits from
the previous administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), such as tax
credits. As a result, the expiration date for battery cell production subsidies
was brought forward by one year, and the $7,500 EV tax credit for vehicles
meeting origin requirements was shortened by six years compared to the original
plan. These changes created new limitations on the growth of the U.S. EV
market.
Although stricter criteria for Foreign
Entities of Concern (FEoC) will further restrict Chinese companies operating in
the U.S., the previously mentioned developments have cast doubt on the market's
growth potential itself. Given Trump’s characteristic negotiation style—often
marked by abrupt tariff proposals—the instability of the U.S. EV market appears
to have increased significantly.
This report forecasts the EV market’s
growth trend in the midst of such volatility, focusing on long-term movement
despite short-term turbulence. While the forecast was developed prior to the
recent passage of the bills by the U.S. Congress, it should still serve to
illustrate the general direction of the market.
This report has organized the regional
electric vehicle sales trends and forecasts of major automotive groups and
leading Chinese automakers by cathode material in new tables. This allows for
clearer and more accessible review of the report data compared to previous
editions.
We hope that this report, which reflects
key aspects of the electric vehicle market, will be helpful to industry
stakeholders.
Contents
1. Automotive Market Outlook
---------------------------------------- 7
1.1 Global
Automotive Market Outlook
1.2 Commercial
Vehicle Market Outlook
1.3 Automotive
Market Outlook by Region
1.4 Automotive
Market Share Outlook by Region
1.5 Electrification
Rate Outlook for Automobiles
2. Global Electric LV Market Outlook---------------
17
2.1 Market Share
Outlook for Electric Passenger Vehicles (LV)
2.2 Market
Outlook for Electric Passenger Vehicles (LV)
2.3 EV Sales
Outlook by Cathode Material
2.3.1 Global CAGR by Cathode Material for PHEV and BEV Markets
(2023–2035)
2.3.2 CAGR in China by Cathode Material for PHEV and BEV Markets
(2023–2035)
2.3.3 CAGR Outside China by Cathode Material for PHEV and BEV
Markets (2023–2035)
2.4 Global
Electric LV Major OEM Outlook
- VW, TESLA, R-N-M, HKMC, Stellantis, GM, Toyota, Ford, Geely,
BMW, Honda,
Mercedes-Benz(Daimler), BYD, SAIC
3. EV Market Outlook by Region (LV)
----------------------------- 68
3.1 EV Market
Outlook in the US
3.2 EV Market
Outlook in North America (Excluding the US)
3.3 EV Market
Outlook in Europe
3.4 EV Market
Outlook in China
3.5 EV Market
Outlook in Japan
3.6 EV Market
Outlook in Korea
3.7 EV Market
Outlook in Asia (Excluding Korea, China, and Japan)
3.8 EV Market
Outlook in Other Regions (Latin America, Oceania, Middle East, Africa)
4. Electric Bus Market Outlook
------------------------------------------- 115
4.1 Electric Bus
Market Outlook
4.2 Electric Bus
Market Outlook by Region
4.2.1 North America (Including USA)
4.2.2 Europe
4.2.3 China
4.2.4 Others (Japan + Korea + Asia + Others)
5. Electric Truck Market Outlook
---------------------------------------- 124
5.1 Electric
Truck Market Outlook
5.2 Electric
Truck Market Outlook by Region
5.2.1 North America (Including USA)
5.2.2 Europe
5.2.3 China
5.2.4 Others (Japan
+ Korea + Asia + Others)
6. LIB Market and Price Outlook
----------------------------------------- 132
6.1 Average
Battery Capacity Outlook for EVs
6.2 Battery
Price Outlook for EVs
6.2.1 Battery Price Outlook for EV Applications
6.2.2 Battery Price Outlook by Cathode Material
6.3 Battery
Market Size Outlook for EVs
7. Battery Market Outlook for EVs
------------------------- 137
7.1 xEV Battery
Demand Outlook
7.2 xEV (LV)
Battery Demand Outlook
7.3 xEV
(Commercial) Battery Demand Outlook
7.4 xEV
(Commercial – BUS) Battery Demand Outlook by Region
7.5 xEV
(Commercial – Truck) Battery Demand Outlook by Region
7.6 xEV Battery
Demand Outlook by Region
7.7 xEV Battery
Demand Outlook by Cathode Material
8. Battery Demand Outlook by OEM (LV)
---------------------- 148
8.1 Global
Battery Demand Outlook by OEM (LV)
- VW, TESLA, R-N-M, HKMC, Stellantis, GM, Toyota, Ford, Geely,
BMW, Honda,
Mercedes-Benz(Daimler), BYD, SAIC
8.2 Battery
Demand Outlook by OEM in China
-
Changan, Greatwall, Chery, BAIC,
GAC, Dongfeng, FAW, Seres(Sokon), Chinese Startup
(Li-Aito/Nio/Leapmotors/Xpeng/Hozon/Xiaomi)
9. Supply Outlook by LIB Manufacturer
--------------------------------------- 191
9.1 Battery
Supply Outlook
9.1.1 Based on Design Capacity
9.1.2 Supply Outlook for Major Battery Manufacturers
9.1.3 Actual Battery Supply Outlook (Based on Actual Production
Capacity)
9.2 Battery
Supply Outlook by Production Region
9.2.1 Based on Actual Production Capacity
9.3 Outlook for
Korean Manufacturers (Based on Actual Production Capacity)
9.3.1 Production Capacity of Korean Manufacturers
9.3.2 Regional Production Capacity of Korean Manufacturers
9.3.3 Production Capacity by Company and Region for Korean
Manufacturers
9.4 Outlook for
Japanese Manufacturers (Based on Actual Production Capacity)
9.4.1 Production Capacity of Japanese Manufacturers
9.4.2 Regional Production Capacity of Japanese Manufacturers
9.4.3 Production Capacity by Company and Region for Japanese
Manufacturers
9.5 Outlook for
Chinese Manufacturers (Based on Actual Production Capacity)
9.5.1 Production Capacity of Chinese Manufacturers
9.5.2 Regional Production Capacity of Chinese Manufacturers
9.5.3 Production Capacity by Company and Region for Chinese
Manufacturers
9.6 Outlook for
European Manufacturers (Based on Actual Production Capacity)
9.6.1 Production Capacity of European Manufacturers
9.6.2 Regional Production Capacity of European Manufacturers
9.6.3 Production Capacity by Company and Region for European
Manufacturers
9.7 Outlook for
US Manufacturers (Based on Actual Production Capacity)
9.7.1 Production Capacity of US Manufacturers
9.7.2 Regional Production Capacity of US Manufacturers
9.7.3 Production Capacity by Company and Region for US Manufacturers
10. Mid-to-Long-Term Battery Supply and
Demand Outlook --------------------------- 210
10.1 Global
Mid-to-Long-Term Supply and Demand Outlook
10.2 Mid-to-Long-Term
Supply and Demand Outlook in China
10.3 Global
Mid-to-Long-Term Supply and Demand Outlook (Excluding China)
10.4 Mid-to-Long-Term
Supply and Demand Outlook in Europe
10.5 Mid-to-Long-Term
Supply and Demand Outlook in North America
[Appendix]
1. Global Automotive Regulations and EV
Promotion Policies -------------------- 217
2. EV Sales Targets of Major Automotive Manufacturers ---------------------- 263
3. Trends of Major Automotive Manufacturers ----------------------------------- 266