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Battery Shipment and Installation for EV/ESS
  • Date  2021-01-13

1Battery Installation Review & Forecast for EV

 

q Battery Installation of EV in ’20 has grown 17% YoY to 137GWh.
q While CATL keeps No. 1 and 3 Korean companies have grown significantly.

   - LGC +150%, SDI 81%, SKI +284%



 

 

2. Battery Shipment Review & Forecast for EV and ESS

q 2020 year battery shipments grew 34% YoY(213GWh)  , and 2021 year is expected to grow 49% YoY(317GWh)

q CATL and LGC are competing for the top, and the gap with other battery makers is widening.

q Battery top tier M/S is increasing 

  - Top 3 battery companies M/S   ‘19 : 62% → ‘20 : 66% → ’21 : 69%

  Top 6 battery companies M/S   ‘19 : 80% → ‘20 : 86% → ’21 : 90%

 





3. Battery Makers M/S Trend

Ø CATL has maintained the top spot, but it has been almost the same level as LGC since 2020

Ø  Panasonic’s M/S drops due to delayed new Production Capacity expansion

Ø  BYD M/S drops due to reduced self-driving and other OEM development delays

Ø  SKI's M/S rises due to expansion of new lines and increased sales



 

 

4. Battery Shipment & Line Operation Forecast

q Major battery companies are forecasting a significant improvement of Production line operation in 2021 
  - CATL, LGC, Panasonic, SDI : Full Operation
  - LGC/SKI : The operation rate is somewhat low due to the stabilization of the new extension line
 
q Other battery companies' line operation rate is expected to decrease




5. EV Market & Penetration rate outlook

q The EV penetration rate of passenger cars is estimated to increase significantly to 4 percent in ’20, 21 percent in ’25 and 48 percent in ‘30
q For buses, to 7 percent in ’20, 26 percent in ’25.
q Trucks are expected to adopt from light type, 1 percent in ’20 and 12 percent in ’25. 



6. Battery Demand Forecast of EV
q Battery demand for EVs is expected to be 1,163GWh in 2025 and 2,963GWh in 2030.(Installation Base)
q Based on Battery shipment, battery demand is expected 1,400GWh in 2025 and 3500GWh in 2030




7. Global Battery Demand & Supply Outlook(EV+ESS)

q Global battery supply is expected to enter Shortage from 2023

  - Battery company additional CAPA expansion required

 


 

 

7-1. Battery Demand & Supply Outlook(EV+ESS)

q In terms of battery Shipment, Battery supply is forecast to be shortage starting in 2022.

 

 


[다운로드 : EV and Battery Market information.pdf]