'Electric vehicle' it sounds very attractive. It is a car running quietly without emission of exhaust gas. The car using petroleum, a form of fossil fuels, has dominated over the past 100 years, though there have been various energy sources for the car. However, will electric cars actually rule the future
In the audio industry, the turntable audio system had been used for about 100 years, since the world's greatest inventor Edison invented the phonograph in 1877, but after Phillips invented the CD(Compact Disk), the Piezo-type LP using scratches disappeared in the mists of history. Although it is unlikely that all the gasoline vehicles are replaced with electric vehicles in an instant, as it were in the audio industry, it seems that replacement has already started off.
In 1899, 1,575 electric vehicles were sold in the United States alone. At the same time, 1,681 steam cars and 936 internal combustion engine cars were sold. In 1909, the sales of the electric vehicle recorded about 4000 units. However, the sale of the gasoline vehicle reached about 120,000 units at the same year. This was the 1st wave of the electric vehicle. Since Prius of Toyota was released in 1999, the 4th wave of electric vehicle has hit its stride slowly. This year, about one million electric cars are being sold. It is not too much to say that those three waves ended in failure, due to battery issues. For example, since the currently available batteries have low density, electric vehicles need to be equipped with a large amount of batteries for a long drive. However, it is impossible to fill the entire car space with batteries. Thus, there are technical issues such as mileage, weight of batteries mounted, accessibility of electric charging sources, and charging time. To make matters worse, the inordinately high battery price shows that we have a long way to go in commercialization. The 4th wave's theme is hybrid.
Do we need the electric vehicle or higher fuel efficiency
We should not forget the fundamental reason why we have longed for the electric vehicle. While the 1st wave was a competition for operating energy sources between the electric vehicle and the internal-combustion engine car, the current competition is focused on which vehicle type will be eco-friendly. In other words, it means that it is necessary to meet the standards set by each government for automobile emission control and good mileage. That each country controls mileage means that it approves the internal-combustion engine car using oil such as gasoline, and diesel fuel, as long as it has high mileage. In the 4th wave, various methods to achieve desired mileage or reach exhaust emission targets are attempted, instead of adherence to 100% pure electric vehicles. A look at the current sales of the electric vehicle in the American market shows that 191,541 hybrid vehicles and 11,182 PHEV/BEV have been sold as of September, 2011. The entire sales are occupied by the hybrid vehicle.
Hybrid vehicle leads the 4th Wave
The report focuses on how the electric market will develop by 2020. The demand for the electric vehicle is created by environmental regulations of each country- especially California. Each automobile maker should meet the environmental regulations of each country to sell their product in the country including California. Thus, they have to concentrate on manufacturing eco-friendly vehicles.
In order to forecast the demand for electric vehicles, market factors affecting the demand are examined in our analysis. They are largely divided into three. Firstly, such price factors as prices of electric vehicles, batteries, and electrical vehicle parts, the cost of driving including prices of oil, electricity and maintenance, prices of used cars. Additionally, government subsidies and tax-free benefits to support sales of the expensive electric vehicles are examined. Secondly, as performance factors, 8 performance requirements for batteries and charge-related problems are examined. Thirdly, matters regarding the current lineup of hybrid vehicles and the history of electric car market are covered along with history, the current activities and future plans in the electric vehicle business of each major auto maker.
< History of electric car sales by country>
Additionally, forecast of the global demand for the electric vehicles until 2020 is provided by each vehicle type and country. It is estimated that there will be demand of 4.13 million units in 2015 and 17.30 million units in 2020 in the global electric vehicle market, which will show an annual growth rate of 36% for the next 10 years. In addition, the hybrid vehicle is expected to lead the growth in the entire electric vehicle market.
This report covers all the key factors related to the demand for the electric vehicle, to provide insight for understanding and forecast of the demand in the electric vehicle market.
1. Examines the history of the electric vehicle industry;
2. Classifies cars for market demand forecast;
3. Examines Big 3 key factors affecting the demand for the electric vehicles;
4. Examines history and the current status and plans of each auto makers; and
5. Predicts the history of electric vehicle sales from 2000~2010 and demand for the electric vehicle by 2020.
This report features
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